Jax State at Kennesaw State - 10/7/26
Wednesday, 7 PM ET, CBS Sports Network
This is the kind of weeknight game that looks ugly on paper, and I mean that as a compliment. Two offenses that would rather run than throw, a short spread, and a total that's already been bet down. I'm taking the home dog and the Under.
Jax State is a one-man show, and the one man turns it over. Caden Creel has 76 carries this season. No other Gamecock has more than 29. He's also accounted for seven turnovers: four interceptions and three lost fumbles. When it works, it's fine. When it doesn't, the offense has nothing else to go to: against FBS teams, Jax State is scoring 22 points a game, and it's 0-2 on the road. Jalen Likely and Lucas Farrington have both averaged better than 5.5 yards per carry. I'd like to see them get the ball more, but I'm not betting on a coaching change tonight.
Kennesaw's offense isn't good either. Since a 47-0 win over FCS West Georgia, the Owls have scored 17, 9, and 14. Rickie Collins threw for just 129 yards at Arkansas State last week. The passing game doesn't scare anyone. What Kennesaw does have is a deep running game: four players have already rushed for over 100 yards.
Why I'll take the points anyway. Kennesaw's defense has been bad, giving up 6.5 yards per play to FBS teams. But Jax State's offense isn't built to run up the score, and the Owls have been a good bet at home the last couple of years. The money has moved their way too. Jax State opened at -2.5, got bet up to -4, and sharp money has pushed it back to -3.
The total. My projection lands around 46. Both teams want to run the ball and run the clock, and neither has a passing game that can make up quick points. The line has already dropped from about 51, so I wouldn't chase it below 47.
The risk. Jax State is the better team by most measures. If Creel has a clean game, -3 gets covered. This is a lean, not a lock.
The picks: Kennesaw State +3 (-110) and Under 48.5 (-108). If you want one bet, take the points.
2 pending
Show all 2 legsHide legs
- 1 – CFB Kennesaw State +3 · Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State -110
- 2 – CFB Under 48.5 · Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State -112
Odds via DraftKings as of 3:00 PM ET.
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