MNF Best Bets: Bills @ Rams - 10/12/26

On paper, this game should be full of offensive fireworks, but this NFL season has been anything but predictable over the first five weeks. Both Buffalo and LA have something to prove tonight. Josh Allen and the Bills are trying to wash off the stink of another disappointing loss to NE (again on their home turf), while the Rams are looking to settle into the "Super Team" moniker they were given before the season kicked off.

All that being said, I am taking a light approach to the slate with a small prop parlay and leaning into the favorites.

Rams −3.5 (−102) · 0.5u

The BW model makes the Rams about a 6.5-point favorite, three points better than DraftKings. The edge is mostly the passing game: the Rams have been efficient through the air this season, and Buffalo’s pass defense has given up more than average. The line has already moved from −3 to −3.5, so the market agrees. Grab it before it gets to −4.

MNF Prop Trends SGP (+525) · 0.5u

Four legs, all built on what these guys have done this season:

1. James Cook 70+ rush yds: he cleared it in 3 of 4 games and averages 105 a game. He’s had at least 21 carries in two of those games.
2. Matthew Stafford 250+ pass yds: three straight games over 300 (327, 390, 317). Buffalo has allowed 274 a game to opposing QBs.
3. Puka Nacua 100+ rec yds: 125 yards on 12 targets in his last game. He’s seeing about 27% of the targets when he’s on the field. Since he's come back from injury, he looks like he hasn't missed a beat.
4. Kyren Williams anytime TD: he’s scored in 3 of 4 games, and his 15 red-zone chances lead the Rams.

If the Rams win comfortably, Stafford, Puka, and Kyren all have big nights. The Bills need to establish the run with Cook if they want to keep this game close. He is averaging 115 rushing yards per game across the team's 3 wins to start the year.